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How do you hope the results of your project will be used? FMP-Met is a direct continuation of two SESAR projects: TBO-Met, where we provided a probabilistic analysis of the impact of weather on trajectory optimisation and sector demand, and PSA-Met, where we addressed the problem of probabilistic storm avoidance. The integration of weather uncertainty into the air traffic management is an active field of research. Is this first time such research has been done? Or are you building on previous research? We will use different ensemble forecasts (the best available at each time and location), with different time and spatial scales, which will be combined seamlessly to provide a single probabilistic prediction of the air traffic. The spread given by all the ensemble members allows to quantify the forecast uncertainty. We plan to utilise ‘Ensemble Weather Forecasting’, a technique that provides an ensemble of deterministic forecasts (referred to as members of the ensemble), so that the output is a representative sample of the possible weather realisations. How does FMP-Met project aim to address the challenges associated with forecasting? However, these forecast estimations often lack sufficient accuracy due to the stochastic or random evolution of the atmosphere, which makes predicting the real impact of a thunderstorm, for example, very challenging. The flow manager consults several meteorological forecasts daily to build a picture of the weather phenomena based on this data and their own judgement of the situation, they estimate the impact on traffic and their specific sector of the airspace. How much in advance are weather forecasts currently integrated into the system?Įvery air traffic control centre has a flow management position (FMP), the job of which includes the mitigation of bad weather effects. Quantifying the weather forecast uncertainty is the main difficulty, and its analysis requires a probabilistic approach. Furthermore, the accuracy of the weather prediction rapidly degrades with the forecasting horizon. It is quite challenging, mainly because forecasting adverse weather is very difficult, even for short lead times.
How easy is it to predict the impact of this weather on operations? Delays come about because bad weather makes air traffic difficult to predict and complex to manage, resulting in reduced airspace capacity. It is estimated that poor meteorological conditions en-route are responsible for about 4 million minutes of delay every year in Europe. How does weather currently impact the planning and management of flights?Īdverse weather has a significant impact on air traffic.
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A newly-launched SESAR project, FMP-MET will look at how to better predict and assess the impact of the weather on air traffic operations, as Alfonso Valenzuela, one of the principal researchers in the project explains in this interview. Predicting the weather relies on timely and accurate forecasts, which is easier said than done given how quickly the conditions can evolve. This is especially true in air traffic management, where poor meteorological conditions is the cause of an estimated 20 % of all traffic delays in Europe. Bad weather can play havoc with the best-laid plans.
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